With a heavy week of byes upon us, the bar for an acceptable start-worthy week is lessened, but that doesn’t mean you have to lower expectations. Our Week 9 Fantasy Football Start and Sit piece looks at who the most likely candidates are to deliver weeks worth starting, and which players you’d be wise to avoid reaching on.
Week 9 NFL Quarterback Starts
Alex Smith vs. New York Jets
Call it anticipation of a short field. Call it recognition of the fact that New York has allowed over 2000 yards passing and a league high 22 passes (the only team over 17). Call it what you will, but the matchup is simply too appealing for Smith.To put matters into perspective, Smith hasn’t had a 30 yard game yet this year, and has attempted more than 30 passes just twice… so, if you’re looking for a top-5 QB you’re probably looking elsewhere. That said, if you’re looking for a bye week fill in, you could to a lot worse than Smith who faces a defense that has allowed six of eight QBs they’ve faced (the others being Derek Carr in week 1 – his first career start, and Jay Cutler) to post more than 20 fantasy points.
Colin Kaepernick vs. St. Louis
Coming out of the bye, Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers draw the St. Louis Rams. who have given up the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Moreover, the Rams have yielded 197 yards on the ground, the 3rd highest total of all teams. Two weeks ago, Kap’s NFC West peer Russell Wilson posted a 100 yard outing against the Rams and while I’m not projecting a similar result, you can expect Kaepernick to add some points with his legs. He has had five or more rushing attempts in each of his last five games. The rushing floor should provide a bonus for Kaepernick owners looking to make good against a defense that has allowed 14 combined touchdowns vs. three interceptions this year.
Week 9 NFL Quarterback Sits
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Baltimore
I get it. You’re excied about the six touchdowns against Indianapolis… but that was a week ago. In Week 9, Big Ben draws a Ravens D that has allowed just seven passing touchdowns on the season. Aaron Rodgers (and co.) owners looking for some help could do worse than Roethlisberger this week, but the point here is that if you’re expecting a similar performance you must acknowledge that the context has changed. This week, he’ll face a Ravens’ D that has allowed just one multiple touchdown passer on the season, against whom he owns a career 80.9 Quarterback Rating (the sixth lowest against any team) and a 21:16 TD:INT ratio.
Tony Romo vs. Arizona
If you’re a gamer who typically rolls Tony Romo out as your QB1, I can’t fault your approach but I can offer you a few words of caution regarding Week 9. The Cowboys QB is shaping up to be a game time decision, and while he’d face a strong matchup against the Cardinals (allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs) its going to be tough to trust Romo in a contest where a) he may leave early, if active and b) the team will look to emphasize the run as much, if not more, than ever. With Romo, there is simply too much uncertainty if another option exists on your roster or waiver wire.
Week 9 NFL Running Back Starts
Marshawn Lynch vs. Oakland
Lynch went the entire month of October without a 20 carry game. Not exactly what owners were expecting after back-to-back 300 carry campaigns. At home against the Raiders, though, the volume should be there. Oakland has seen 211 RB rushing attempts against – the highest per game average in the league, due in large part to the fact that they spend most of games trailing. That fact won’t change on the road against the 12th man, and as such Lynch (along with sneaky 6-10 carry candidate Chrstine Michael) should benefit. Count on a 20 touch game from the back who is averaging 4.3 a pop with a chance for a score (at a minimum) against a defense averaging an RB rushing touchdown against per game.
Clik here to view.
Jeremy Hill has the backfield to himself in a week where Cincinnati’s offense is expected to click on all cylinders (Photo: John Grieshop/Getty Images).
Jeremy Hill vs. Jacksonville
While the prognosis on Giovani Bernard‘s long term health is apparently good, he has been ruled out for Week 9 and someone is going to have to pick up the slack even if he is on the field. With AJ Green likely to return, we should see Cincinnati’s offense resume its early season rhythm and I’m not expecting the recently competitive Jaguars to pose a serious threat. Over the last month, Jacksonville has kept themselves close enough to hold opposing backs of the scoreboard (28th in FPPG) but they still rank as the 13th most generous RB defense on the season. On the road, against the Bengals I think you’ll see some early scoring and lots of opportunities for Hill to methodically run out the clock, padding his fantasy numbers.
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Week 9 NFL Running Back Sits
Jonas Gray vs. Denver
Gray is nothing more than a one cut runner who can fall forward (effectively) after contact and will produce some bruising runs up the middle. I won’t fault him for that, and in fact I think he has some start worthy weeks ahead of him. That said, in Week 9 the Patriots face a Broncos squad that has seen RBs relegated to observer status this year. Not only is Denver’s front seven presenting a tough task for opposing rushers to 3.4 YPC (0.1 off the lowest mark int he league), they’re seeing the fewest RB rush attempts per game with 121 through seven outings. In short: when Gray runs the ball you can’t expect it to go for much… and, it isn’t looking like he’ll run it too often.
You’d have to think that game flow favors Shane Vereen, though, with the assumption that New England will pass plenty and engage their 3rd/4th most important target.
Ben Tate vs. Tampa Bay
In the two games that Tate has played this season with Alex Mack in the lineup for a full game, Cleveland’s zone blocking scheme has functioned well – allowing for 6.8 and 5.6 YPC carry contests. Mack went down: 3.1 YPC vs. Pittsburgh. The two games since: 2.3 and 1.7. Not good. I’m not saying that Mack was the keystone of their running game, but in a system that is predicated on each man playing their role precisely to open running lanes the offense appears to be in flux with its Center out. Over time, I think the new pieces will acclimate but in the interim using Tate is ill advised. The Bucs have been beat on the ground, too. They come in allowing the 10th most FPPG to opposing RBs but nothing that we’ve seen over the last two weeks, with Tate and Co. consistently being hit behind the line of scrimmage, suggests that a start-worthy game is in store. For his part, Tate acknowledges that there have been few running lanes in recent weeks. If you want to assume they’ll open up, power to you. But, I’d prefer to see it first.
Week 9 NFL Wide Receiver Starts
Dwayne Bowe vs. New York Jets
In all but one game this season, an opposing WR has scored 10+ fantasy points against the New York Jets. We’ve covered their defensive ineptitude above, so… lets just focus on why Bowe is expected to be that 10 points receiver this week. Essentially, he is the only KC receiver who gets thrown the ball. Despite missing the opening week, Bowe leads the team in targets by 13 over any other Chiefs’ receiver (the long since inactive Donnie Avery) and has actually done a nice job reeling in passes this year: Bowe has caught 75.8% of the passes thrown his way in 2014, after posting a 57.5% number in ’13. He should see a lot of action against a New York secondary that has been full of holes this year and is a good bet to produce.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Philadelphia
If you spent any time watching Arizona’s victory over the Eagles in Week 8 you’ll know why Hopkins is a recommended start this week. The Eagles were exposed deep a week ago, to the tune of two 75+ yard touchdowns (ok, one was a short pass taken to the house) as part of eight 40+ yard plays they have allowed so far this season. Hopkins has been targeted 12 times over 20 yards this season, catching seven of them for 259 yards (and two scores). The 20+ yard tosses represent just about a quarter (23.9%) of his 52 targets so far this year. If anyone is going to take advantage of a secondary that can be beaten over the top, its ‘Nuk this week.
Brandon LaFell vs. Denver
I covered LaFell in detail earlier this week. What you need to know: he’s topped 15 fantasy points in two of his last three outings and delivered a solid floor option in between. Last week, he was easily the most targeted Patriot and has become a staple of New England’s passing game – a pass game that will see plenty of use in Week 9 against Denver. Expect lots of opportunities, and continued chemistry between Brady and his new trusted receiver.
Week 9 NFL Wide Receiver Sits
John Brown at Dallas
I know you’re excited as an owner who picked up Brown off waivers and you’re dying to use him, particularly after his nine target outing against the Eagles last week… but I wouldn’t expect that trend to carry over into Week 9. Floyd was limited by a knee injury in Week 8 and saw just four targets… his limited use played a role in Brown’s big day, and it was just the second time in which Brown was more targeted than the third year wideout this season. Expect him to slip back into the 4/5 target range, a position from which it is much harder to produce the big gain that made Brown’s fantasy week against the Eagles.
Hakeem Nicks at New York Giants
I know you, fantasy gamer, and you’re all about the narrative. This, after all, is a revenge game for Hakeem Nicks… clearly he’s going to go off, right? Wrong! A week ago, Nicks was significantly exposed when asked to play an expanded role with Reggie Wayne out. He was targeted heavily in the early going, but struggled to secure the balls thrown his way and shared fault with Andrew Luck for an early interception. Later in the game, the team shifted to using Donte Moncrief ahead of him and the rookie receiver produced much better results. Wayne is uncertain again for Monday, and Nicks comes in highly motivated… but, I’m not sure any of that matters. This quote from rotoworld.com sums up how easily it has been for opponents to nullify Nicks this season: “Nicks found himself getting Darrelle Revis’d by William Gay, and was hopelessly blanketed on one of Andrew Luck’s two picks.”
Week 9 NFL Tight End Starts
Larry Donnell vs. Indianapolis
Donnell has quieted down a bit after his early season coming out, but he did see seven targets to lead the team in their only game since the injury to Victor Cruz. That injury means more targets to go around in general, and the should be valuable targets this week against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed five receiving touchdowns to the position so far, and are yielding 77% receptions on 53 TE targets against. With that in mind, a 6-80-TD line could be in the offing for Donnell.
Week 9 NFL Tight End Sits
Jason Witten vs. Arizona
Witten was the busiest he has been all season in Week 8, with eight targets, five catches, 70 yards and a score. However, those 70 yards also mark the first time he has topped 60 in a game this season and Witten is a good bet to slide back into his role as a blocker as opposed to the team’s most targeted pass catcher like he was last week. He spent just 40% of his offensive snaps run blocking last week, easily the lowest total since Week 1 but will be called upon to do the same this week whether a less than 100% Tony Romo needs protection or the move to Brandon Weeden necessitates a run first (run first-er?) offense.
Week 9 NFL DSTs to Stream
Cincinnati, Kansas City and San Francisco all have favorable matchups this week but are widely owned. Looking a little deeper:
Washington at Minnesota – 18% owned
Teddy Bridgewater played a composed game against Tampa Bay last week, but the team still needed overtime to put 19 points on the board. Even with his 241 yard, no turnover performance (with one sack) Teddy has just two touchdowns to five interceptions and has taken 14 sacks over his last three outings. The Washington defense is not an exciting unit, but they’re good enough to take advantage of that.
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay – 59% owned
Tampa QB Mike Glennon continues to start (rightly so) ahead of Josh McCown but the results have not been all that exciting of late. With just 30 points scored across his last two outings and an interception thrown in each to go with 10 sacks behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranks as the 3rd worst unit in the league, the Bucs are becoming a fantasy defense worth streaming against.
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